Abstract

Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean–atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate …

Date

April 30, 2019

Authors

Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Nicholas P McKay, Gregory J Hakim, Deborah Khider, Toby R Ault, Eric J Steig, Sylvia Dee, James W Kirchner

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Volume

116

Issue

18

Pages

8728-8733

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences