Abstract

Measures of climate are known to exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It has been suggested that climate models underestimate these fluctuations [1-4], casting doubt on their ability to predict the amplitude of climate variability over coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, as well as spectral methods tailored to scaling estimation, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multi-millennial. Our results confirm the existence of a regime transition between orbital and annual peaks [5], occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. The …

Date

January 1, 1970

Authors

Feng Zhu, Julien Emile-Geay, Toby Ault, Nicholas McKay, Gregory J Hakim, Deborah Khider, Eric J Steig, Sylvia Dee, James W Kirchner

Journal

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Volume

2018

Pages

GC34C-04