Abstract

Current Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) calculations produce predictive seismic hazard curves using an earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) that defines how ground motions decay with distance from an earthquake. Traditionally, GMPEs are empirically-based attenuation models. However, these GMPEs have important limitations. The observational data used to develop the attenuation relationships do not cover the full range of possible earthquake magnitudes. These GMPEs predict only peak ground motions, and do not produce ground motion time series. Phenomena such as rupture directivity and basin effects may not be well captured with these GMPEs. To improve the accuracy of PSHA calculations, researchers at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) are performing physics-based PSHA using the CyberShake project. CyberShake …

Date

January 1, 1970

Authors

S Callaghan, PJ Maechling, E Deelman, P Small, K Vahi, G Mehta, G Juve, K Milner, RW Graves, EH Field, DA Okaya, TH Jordan

Journal

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts

Volume

2009

Pages

U51C-0030